Conte’s ‘Champions League curse’ and Spurs’ possibilities of advancing from Group D
Under the bright lights of the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Wednesday, Spurs announced their return to the Champions League after a two-year absence.
Richarlison’s two headers helped Antonio Conte’s team earn all three points and get off to a winning start in Group D, despite a less-than-spectacular performance.
Despite the fact that there are no easy games in the Champions League, Spurs’ group has arguably the most winnable matchups against teams from pots one and three.
However, the disparity in quality between the teams in Group D is substantially smaller than in other groups, so while Tottenham appear to be in a “less difficult” group, this is not necessarily the case.
Since the draw, fans have voiced worries on Conte’s previous Champions League performances, which could be deemed subpar for an elite-level manager.
Prior to joining Tottenham, Antonio Conte’s Champions League record was 12 victories, 11 draws, and 11 loses (Transfermarkt).
Prior to joining Tottenham, Antonio Conte’s Champions League record was 12 victories, 11 draws, and 11 loses (Transfermarkt).
Nonetheless, a breakdown of Conte’s European accomplishments reveals that his record may not be as dismal as initially believed, so let’s take a look.
In his debut season, 2012/13, Antonio Conte led Juventus to an undefeated run through the group stage and into the round of 16.
The Old Lady drew Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals, and the Germans won both legs 2-0. However, given that Bayern Munich went on to win the championship, the defeat seems understandable.
The following season, granted, Conte’s performance was subpar, and he was eliminated from the group while Real Madrid and Galatasaray advanced.
Nonetheless, a third-place finish allowed Juventus to qualify for the Europa League, with the Italian directing them to a semi-final to produce a respectable European campaign after the holidays.
After a three-year absence, Conte guided Chelsea through the group stages, where they drew Barcelona in the round of 16, but the Catalans, spearheaded by Messi, cruised to a 4-0 aggregate victory.
Yes, the result is poor, but there’s certainly no shame in losing to a Lionel Messi-fueled Barcelona team, that’s for certain.
Conte returned to Europe’s premier competition with Inter Milan, who were placed in a difficult group featuring Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund, and Slavia Prague. The Nerazzurri finished third behind Barcelona and BVB, but having been placed in what was essentially the “group of death” of that season, one great team was undoubtedly destined for an early exit.
Nevertheless, despite an early exit from the Champions League, Conte led Chelsea to an outstanding Europa League run, defeating Ludogarets, Getafe, Bayern Leverkusen, and Shakhtar Donetsk before losing to Europa League specialists Sevilla in the final due to a Lukaku own goal.
Finally, in the 2020/21 season, Conte was eliminated in the group stage once more, albeit in a less forgiving manner.
Finishing last in a group with Real Madrid – again the eventual champions – Borussia Monchengladbach, and Shakhtar Donetsk is inexplicably terrible, but this may be Antonio Conte’s lone categorical stain on an otherwise disappointing Champions League resume.
Now that it has been shown that Conte’s alleged “Champions League curse” is more myth than reality, what exactly must Tottenham do to advance from the group stage?
First and foremost, the apparent golden rule of the Champions League group stages is that you must win your home games; if you can do that, you have a good chance of advancing.
While this is largely accurate, it is not set in stone.
In the 48 home games played by the 16 qualifying teams from the group stage of the previous season, there were 36 victories, five ties, and seven defeats (Uefa).
Yes, this indicates that home advantage is significant, but it is not necessary, as a deeper examination of last year’s competition reveals some irregularities.
Group G champions LOSC advanced with just one home win and two draws, while Group F runners-up Villareal advanced with a win, a draw, and a defeat in Spain.
Atletico Madrid, who finished second in Group B despite two losses and a draw at home, is possibly the most egregious example of deviation from the norm.
Although relying on away results is a poor approach that should be avoided wherever feasible, there is no reason why it cannot be accomplished.
However, for Conte to win the group, home victories are important, as only four of the 24 home games played by last year’s group champions (two of which were LOSC) resulted in anything other than a home victory.
But what precisely must Spurs do to qualify?
In the last three seasons, the average number of points required to finish first was 14.1, but this varies greatly each group.
Some clubs, particularly during the previous season, won all of their group games, although in other occasions, 11 points were sufficient for first place.
Over the same three seasons, an average of 10.3 points would have claimed second place, although it should be noted that in two of these three seasons, a perfect score of 10 points would have been sufficient.
Considering the competitiveness in our group, 14+ points may be a tall order, since the disparity in quality between the four teams is rather small.
Considering the competitiveness in our group, 14+ points may be a tall order, since the disparity in quality between the four teams is rather smal. In conclusion, the group winners will have fewer than 18 points.
Due to winning start, Tottenham have given themselves every opportunity to qualify with five games remaining, while Tottenham now has 30 percent of the required points.
Now, they must hope that the talent Conte has demonstrated since his arrival translates to Europe, as we have a legitimate shot at winning Group D.
Conte’s ‘Champions League curse’ and Spurs’ possibilities of advancing from Group D
